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Jobless claims show that jobs remain plentiful

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First-time claims for unemployment benefits declined to 232,000 for the week ending Aug. 27 as continuing claims increased modestly to 1.438 million from a revised 1.412 million for the week ending Aug. 20.

From our vantage point, it would appear that the pace of firings is settling into a pace consistent with our preferred metric, the 13-week moving average, which stands at 239,000, according to government data released Thursday. The average pace of firings this year has been 214,000.

Initial jobless claims

Perhaps more interesting is that continuing claims remain range bound as demand for labor stays historically tight and the duration of unemployment is roughly two months.

Continuing claims stand about 130,000 above the low of May 20, which is not exactly evidence of an impending collapse in demand for labor. Rather, it is indicative of the hard line that the central bank has adopted to reduce inflation through the demand side of the economy.

Continuing claims

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About Joseph Brusuelas

@JoeBrusuelas

Joe Brusuelas, “chief economist to the middle market,” is the preeminent voice championing issues and policies facing midsize companies in the United States and around the world. An award-winning economist, Brusuelas has more than 20 years’ experience analyzing U.S. monetary policy, labor markets, fiscal policy, international finance, economic indicators and the condition of the U.S. consumer.

A member of the Wall Street Journal’s forecasting panel and the UCLA Anderson School of Management's Board of Directors, Brusuelas regularly briefs members of Congress and other senior officials regarding the impacts of federal policy on the middle market and the factors by which middle market executives make business decisions. He also frequently offers his insights on the U.S., Canadian and global economies in the financial media. In 2020, he was named one of the 100 most influential economists by Richtopia. In December 2023, Brusuelas and the economics team were recognized on Bloomberg's list of Best Bond Forecasters after correctly predicting where the benchmark Treasury would end the year.

Before joining RSM in 2014, Brusuelas spent four years as a senior economist at Bloomberg L.P. and the Bloomberg Briefs newsletter group, where he co-founded the award-winning Bloomberg Economic Brief. Earlier in his career, he was a director at Moody's Analytics covering the U.S. and global economies for the Dismal Scientist website. He also served as chief economist at Merk Investments L.L.C. and chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal.

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