Investors will get a look at the September consumer price index on Oct. 24 when we expect a 0.4% increase in top-line inflation and 0.3% rise in the core rate, which excludes food and energy costs. Those monthly figures should translate into a 3.1% year-ago increase.
While we doubt such an increase will deter the Federal Reserve from cutting rates at its next meeting on Oct. 29, it will most likely raise awareness that inflation will remain above 3%, well above the Fed’s 2% target.
Elevated prices will present hardships on American families as they struggle to meet the rising cost of food and other necessities.
The headline CPI inflation rate in August had already reached 2.9% before the government shutdown.
In addition to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we can also turn to alternative sources. Specifically, the Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcasting model estimates that the CPI will have reached 3% in September and the first weeks of October. (Nowcasting for the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, is 2.8%.)
Food prices
Higher tariffs are still in place and there is every reason to expect that households will be faced with higher prices with each visit to the grocery store or delivery of food.
Food prices as a whole rose by 3.1% in August, reaching that level for the first time since the 2021-22 inflation shock.
Beef and veal prices rose by 13.1% and coffee increased by nearly 20%, with those increases attributed to the tariffs and the ongoing drought.
Even soup increased by 4% in August, a substantial jump after 18 months of averaging less than 1%. That increase was a byproduct of tariffs on the meat and vegetables used to produce soup.
Consumer expectations and uncertainty
With gasoline prices in retreat, the increase in inflation expectations among households lands squarely on food and housing, which also rose by 4% in August.
The latest consumer survey by the University of Michigan has households expecting the inflation rate to reach 4.6% in the next 12 months and 3.7% over the next 5 to 10 years.
While neither prediction seems as unanchored as during the April tariff announcements, households with limited budgets are likely to postpone purchases of nonessential items and to find substitutes for too-expensive food items, if possible.
The takeaway
Research has shown the impact of the current inflation rate on household expectations and in turn household spending decisions.
Should the upswing in inflation continue, the result will be diminished spending among low-income households, adding to the expected slowdown of economic activity.
In recent business cycles, it has taken a recession to push household inflation expectations to within range of the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target. The latest episode of government dysfunction only adds to both household and business uncertainty.
