The CPI data affirmed the growing inclination at the Fed that any further rate cuts—if there are any at all this year— should be postponed until the second half of the year. … READ MORE >
U.S. inflation
Inflation ticks up amid seasonal factors and strong growth
November marked the first month since April when overall CPI inflation grew by 0.3% monthly, or 3.7% annualized, well above the Fed’s 2% target. … READ MORE >
Producer price index implies further disinflation
The lower-than-expected producer inflation report released on Friday should offset some of the upside surprises from the consumer inflation data released on Thursday. … READ MORE >
U.S. CPI: Further evidence of disinflation supports another rate cut
We expect the Fed to keep its eyes on preserving full employment amid general price stability, which points to a further reduction in interest rates throughout the remainder of the year … READ MORE >
American economy grew by 2.8% in second quarter, exceeding forecasts
A strong labor market, rising real wages and a 1% increase in disposable income bolstered household spending, which advanced by a sustainable 2.3%. … READ MORE >
Further disinflation in the June consumer price index points to a Fed rate cut
The road is now open to a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. Broad-based core goods inflation along with easing energy and transportation costs all continue be the primary factors behind inflation’s decline from 9.1% in June 2022 to its current 3%. … READ MORE >
As economy cools, Fed needs to cut rates
This overall slowing should result in the Federal Reserve’s reducing its federal funds policy rate by 25 basis points in September and December, which would put it a range between 4.75% and 5%. … READ MORE >
U.S. harmonized index of consumer prices: A more accurate metric of disinflation?
Traditional measures of inflation don’t necessarily tell the full story of what is happening with pricing, especially in housing. That’s where other measures like the harmonized index of consumer prices are instructive … READ MORE >
U.S. inflation expectations are well anchored as Fed nears decision
Our read on the economy, hiring and the labor market suggests that the Fed can ease rates without dislodging well-anchored expectations and still establish price stability. … READ MORE >
U.S. gas prices poised to decline by 10% ahead of July 4
Because of supply conditions and easing demand, domestic gasoline prices peaked at $3.67 per gallon for regular on April 18 and have declined since then. They are poised to decline even further. … READ MORE >