The cost of goods in the producer price index rose at the quickest pace since February, by 0.3% on the month, as tariffs began to make their way into the broader economy. … READ MORE >
U.S. inflation
U.S. consumer price index creeps higher in June
Inflation has started a slow climb as signs of tariff-induced inflation are now evident within durable and nondurable imports. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Demand-side inflation implies Fed still has work to do
When the consumer price index for June is released on Tuesday, we expect a top-line monthly increase of 0.3% and 0.2% on the core, which will translate to 2.6% year-over-year increase and 2.9% on the core. … READ MORE >
U.S. economic outlook: Stagflation lite to describe second half
We now expect growth to slow to 1.1% this year, inflation to rise above 3% and a 4.4% unemployment rate. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Inventory cushion may be holding down inflation
Even as some goods showed early signs of tariff-induced inflation, businesses have for the most part managed to absorb the cost of the new trade taxes. … READ MORE >
Cracks in spending and manufacturing begin to form
April retail sales showed a sharp turn in consumer spending at retail stores and restaurants, following months of stockpiling ahead of tariffs. … READ MORE >
In April CPI report, scant evidence of tariff-induced inflation
We think it probable that the pervasive uncertainty around trade policy caused businesses to simply remain in place until they had more information about the tariffs. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Rising inflation expectations could send yields higher today
The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, to be released on Monday, carries the risk of sending yields higher across the curve. … READ MORE >
March inflation moderated in the last clean report before tariffs
Investors and policymakers should anticipate top-line and core inflation to advance at a 4% to 4.5% pace by the middle of the summer. … READ MORE >
Simultaneous shocks to tip economy into recession in current quarter
We have increased our recession probability to 55% over the next 12 months. … READ MORE >