We expect total employment to increase by 580,000 and the unemployment rate to fall to 7.6% when the October estimate of employment conditions in the United States is released on Friday. While we anticipate a solid number, it is equally clear that the recall of workers is slowing and that the number of permanent job losses is rising.
With the second wave of the pandemic upon us, we expect this recall to slow significantly into the end of the year as the growth rate eases back toward the long-term trend of 2%, absent a significant round of fiscal aid. We are not holding our breath on that.
The two major catalysts of growth in the current rebound have been manufacturing and housing. For this reason, we expect strong increases in hiring around manufacturing and construction.
But we are somewhat concerned that the bulk of the gains in private service-providing employment will slow noticeably, and we will most likely observe another decline in overall government hiring. The latter two areas of the employment report denote some downside risk to our top-line forecast.
For more information on how the coronavirus is affecting midsize businesses, please visit the RSM Coronavirus Resource Center.
