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CHART OF THE DAY: A resurgent pandemic in Canada

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Canada reached a grim milestone in early April, passing one million cumulative cases of COVID-19 infections. More than 8,760 new cases are being reported each day as this latest surge of infections closes in on the levels of the post-holiday second wave.

If the current breakout is not quickly contained, it will put at risk the consensus 5.9% Canadian forecast for economic growth this year. This is why we think some of the talk around fiscal austerity and the normalization of Bank of Canada monetary policy is entirely premature.

As of April 18, more than 1.12 million cases of COVID-19 infections have been reported and more than 23,600 Canadians have died since the coronavirus spread to Canada 13 months ago, according to the latest data from Worldometer. The increase in cases is resulting in a lagged uptrend in deaths, which are now occurring at a rate of 44 per day on average.

The increase comes as vaccines continue to be distributed. Data compiled by CTV shows that Canada has the third-highest vaccination rate among the G8 nations, with nearly 24% of its population receiving at least one dose of a vaccine. The United States is second with 38% vaccinated and the U.K. is first with 49% receiving at least one dose.

For more information on how the coronavirus pandemic is affecting midsize businesses, please visit the RSM Coronavirus Resource Center.

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About Joseph Brusuelas

@JoeBrusuelas

Joe Brusuelas, “chief economist to the middle market,” is the preeminent voice championing issues and policies facing midsize companies in the United States and around the world. An award-winning economist, Brusuelas has more than 20 years’ experience analyzing U.S. monetary policy, labor markets, fiscal policy, international finance, economic indicators and the condition of the U.S. consumer.

A member of the Wall Street Journal’s forecasting panel and the UCLA Anderson School of Management's Board of Directors, Brusuelas regularly briefs members of Congress and other senior officials regarding the impacts of federal policy on the middle market and the factors by which middle market executives make business decisions. He also frequently offers his insights on the U.S., Canadian and global economies in the financial media. In 2020, he was named one of the 100 most influential economists by Richtopia. In December 2023, Brusuelas and the economics team were recognized on Bloomberg's list of Best Bond Forecasters after correctly predicting where the benchmark Treasury would end the year.

Before joining RSM in 2014, Brusuelas spent four years as a senior economist at Bloomberg L.P. and the Bloomberg Briefs newsletter group, where he co-founded the award-winning Bloomberg Economic Brief. Earlier in his career, he was a director at Moody's Analytics covering the U.S. and global economies for the Dismal Scientist website. He also served as chief economist at Merk Investments L.L.C. and chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal.

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