The successful release of one or more vaccines presents society with the issue of who gets vaccinated first and then the succeeding phases of distribution. This will challenge our society to the core.
Recent difficult conversations around race and economic inequality boil just beneath the surface of this challenging topic.
Recent difficult conversations around race and economic inequality boil just beneath the surface of this challenging topic. The answer to this question and the policies that follow will shape the economic recovery, as well as the social tensions that surround the pandemic and its aftermath.
The conversation has been that health care workers – whom we depend on for our own safety – should be the first in line. The key to the initial phase of vaccination distribution is to prevent the domestic health care system from collapsing under the weight of the second wave of the pandemic.
One might argue that service providers in nursing homes are second in line. These are people who cannot risk getting sick. Allowing them to become infected when a vaccine is available could repeat the deadly outcome of the initial outbreak, which resulted in the lockdown of a particularly vulnerable population. And, of course, first responders all should have access to the vaccine as soon as possible.
After that, it becomes more difficult to navigate through ethical and legal considerations. For instance, if older people are more vulnerable than young people to the coronavirus, then should we begin vaccinating 100-year-olds, followed by 90-year-olds and so on until we reach infants?
Should baby-boomers – who are higher risk, but many of whom are retired and could potentially remain at home more easily – be more important than millennials, who are lower risk, yet in the process of building careers and families? What about the racial minorities who have suffered more serious illness and higher death rates from COVID-19?
A recent article in the Journal of American Medical Association Network considers, “Is It Lawful and Ethical to Prioritize Racial Minorities for COVID-19 Vaccines?” The authors point to APM Research Lab findings that as of Nov. 10, Indigenous people are 3.2 times as likely to have died from COVID-19 than white people. Black and Hispanic people are 3.0 times as likely, Pacific Islanders are 2.3 times more likely, and Asian populations are 1.1 times as likely to have died, according to the APM Research Lab findings.
The answers to these critical questions will shape our economy for years to come.
Pandemic update in five charts
As of the Sunday after Thanksgiving, novel coronavirus infections are increasing at an average rate of nearly 164,000 per day, which is down from the peak of 180,000 reached earlier in the week.
Our model indicates that the cumulative number of cases could reach 15 million by early December.
Whether this downtrend continues will depend on how many people traveled home and the number of people sitting around the Thanksgiving table—an unfortunate circumstance if the spread were to spike again in the weeks before Christmas.
According to the Worldometer database, there have been 13.8 million U.S. cases of COVID-19 since the first known case in January. At the current rate of spread and unless the public quickly adopts social-distancing practices, our model indicates that the cumulative number of cases could reach 15 million by the end of the first week of December.
There have been more than 273,000 COVID-19 deaths in total, with nearly 1,500 each day. The spike in cases has left 5.4 million people currently infected, which implies that 1.5% of the population is likely to be fighting the myriad respiratory, liver, heart and cognitive effects of the disease. It took 15 days for the number of infections to increase from 3 million to 4 million and only 10 days to reach the 5 million milestone.
According to the COVID Tracking Program, current COVID-19 hospitalizations have pushed past 93,000. That leaves little capacity for treating patients who do not have the virus.
State-by-state analysis
The first figure below shows the spread of the infections among the six states with major metropolitan areas (Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois and California) where the initial outbreak peaked in April. The recent rise in cases in those states more than doubles the initial outbreak and is attributed to increased social interaction, as people let down their guard while enjoying family gatherings, attending college and engaging in social activities instead of staying home.
The second chart shows the spread of the virus across all the other states, where infections peaked across the South and Southwest in the weeks after the July 4 weekend. That spread has since moved into the Midwest and across the northern tier, with new cases in those states far exceeding their summer peak.
Infections in the six states with major metropolitan centers are rising at a rate of more than 43,000 new cases per day as of Sunday. Infections in all other states are rising at a rate of more than 118,000 per day.
Deaths attributed to the coronavirus have increased to 340 per day in the six major metropolitan states, and nearly 1,100 deaths per day in all other states.
Average weekly growth rate of infections
In the following table, we show the state-by-state weekly growth rate of infections since Sept. 12, which was the low point for infections after the Labor Day weekend and which signaled the unofficial start of indoor activity and social interaction.
Note that because of the inconsistency of reporting by states and the haphazard spread of the virus, we are looking at the average rate of infection in the several weeks since the onset of cooler weather.
The blue highlights indicate the six states with major metropolitan areas that were initially affected by the virus. After much progress over the summer, each of those states is reporting increasing numbers of cases since Labor Day.
Cases in New Mexico have increased by an average of 32% in each of the 11 weeks since the low point on Sept. 12. Hawaii is the only state reporting fewer cases now than in the first weeks of September.
For more information on how the coronavirus is affecting midsize businesses, please visit the RSM Coronavirus Resource Center.
