January was the worst month of the pandemic, with nearly 98,000 U.S. deaths attributed to COVID-19.
That surge came as no surprise to many in the public health community who predicted such an increase after family and friends gathered during the holidays. At the peak of the recent surge, more than a quarter million new cases per day were being reported.
Newly reported cases of coronavirus infections receded to 151,000 per day by the end of January.
Now, the totals are easing, with new cases receding to 151,000 per day by the end of January, according to the Worldometers database. Hospitalizations have subsided as well, to 95,000, down from more than 130,000 in the first week of January, according to the COVID Tracking Program.
Still, the spike in cases set off by the holidays has left 9.9 million people currently infected, and many of those people will be fighting the myriad respiratory, liver, heart and cognitive effects of the disease for some time.
That does not include the 450,000 deaths already attributed to COVID-19 infections in the United States. We are now averaging 3,250 deaths per day and there have been 10 days of 4,000-plus deaths.
There is some evidence that more of the public has gradually started to embrace social distancing practices. A survey published in the Journal of the American Medical Association network shows a growing acceptance of mask wearing that “aligns with other national surveys of self-reported mask use, and may reflect improved public health messaging.”
The survey showed an increase in self-reported mask wearing from less than 40% in early April increasing toward 90% in late November.
And then there are the indirect effects of the virus, including the potential cost of foregone medical treatment. Surveys taken between March and July and reported in a JAMA article found that 25% of respondents to a survey did not seek medical care because of fear of transmission of the virus or the closing of practices because of the virus.
Another 10% avoided care for financial reasons, including loss of health insurance while unemployed, the survey found. Differences among the respondents were found to be related to race/ethnicity, age, household income, employment status and health insurance status, confirming the demographic differences found in other studies.
State-by-state analysis
Using state data from the Bloomberg News/Johns Hopkins database as of Jan. 31, the first figure below shows the spread of the infections among the six states with major metropolitan areas (Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois and California) where the initial outbreak peaked in April. The recent rise in cases in those states more than doubles the initial outbreak.
The second chart shows the spread of the virus across all the other states, where infections peaked across the South and Southwest in the weeks after the July 4 weekend. That spread has since moved into the Midwest and across the northern tier, with new cases in those states far exceeding their summer peak.
Infections in the six states with major metropolitan centers have increased by more than 50,600 per day as of the end of January. Infections in all other states have increased by more than 98,100 per day.
Deaths attributed to the coronavirus are averaging more than 1,100 per day in the six states with major metropolitan areas, and more than 2,000 deaths per day in all other states.
Roughly 9% of the total population has been vaccinated across the 50 states and the District of Columbia, as listed in the table that follows.
For more information on how the coronavirus pandemic is affecting midsize businesses, please visit the RSM Coronavirus Resource Center.
