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CHART OF THE DAY: First-time jobless claims continue to decline

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First-time jobless claims continued their downward march for the week ending May 15, falling to 444,000 as new filings for federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance declined to 95,086, down from 103,678 for the week ending May 8. There were 3.75 million continuing claims for the week ending May 8.

Through the week ending May 1, there were 15.97 million people on some form of unemployment insurance.

Initial claims during the past two sampling periods for the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimate of monthly employment have declined from 765,000 to 444,000, or by 321,000 people. That sustained decline suggests that the softer-than-expected gain of 266,000 in the April employment estimate is likely an outlier and not a harbinger of things to come.

We strongly suggest that firm managers, investors and policymakers should anticipate more robust monthly job gains for the remainder of the year and a steady march downward on the overall unemployment rate to 4.1% by the holiday season.

For more information on how the coronavirus pandemic is affecting midsize businesses, please visit the RSM Coronavirus Resource Center.

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About Joseph Brusuelas

@JoeBrusuelas

Joe Brusuelas, “chief economist to the middle market,” is the preeminent voice championing issues and policies facing midsize companies in the United States and around the world. An award-winning economist, Brusuelas has more than 20 years’ experience analyzing U.S. monetary policy, labor markets, fiscal policy, international finance, economic indicators and the condition of the U.S. consumer.

A member of the Wall Street Journal’s forecasting panel and the UCLA Anderson School of Management's Board of Directors, Brusuelas regularly briefs members of Congress and other senior officials regarding the impacts of federal policy on the middle market and the factors by which middle market executives make business decisions. He also frequently offers his insights on the U.S., Canadian and global economies in the financial media. In 2020, he was named one of the 100 most influential economists by Richtopia. In December 2023, Brusuelas and the economics team were recognized on Bloomberg's list of Best Bond Forecasters after correctly predicting where the benchmark Treasury would end the year.

Before joining RSM in 2014, Brusuelas spent four years as a senior economist at Bloomberg L.P. and the Bloomberg Briefs newsletter group, where he co-founded the award-winning Bloomberg Economic Brief. Earlier in his career, he was a director at Moody's Analytics covering the U.S. and global economies for the Dismal Scientist website. He also served as chief economist at Merk Investments L.L.C. and chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal.

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