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Initial jobless claims resume their downward trend, falling to 364,000

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Initial jobless claims declined to 364,000 for the week ending June 26, resuming their downward trend following a few weeks of flat to down readings.

The weekly number is the lowest posting of the pandemic and indicative of what we expect to be a downward march toward pre-pandemic levels in first-time claims of 200,000 to 230,000.

Even with the decline, there are still 14.6 million people receiving some form of unemployment insurance. Of the major programs, 3.2 million are on regular state benefits, 5.9 million are receiving federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and 5.2 million are on federal Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation.

As benefits begin to be withdrawn, one should expect both the traditional claims and non-traditional claims data associated with pandemic assistance and emergency compensation to begin to ease.

For more information on how the coronavirus pandemic is affecting midsize businesses, please visit the RSM Coronavirus Resource Center.

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About Joseph Brusuelas

@JoeBrusuelas

Joe Brusuelas, “chief economist to the middle market,” is the preeminent voice championing issues and policies facing midsize companies in the United States and around the world. An award-winning economist, Brusuelas has more than 20 years’ experience analyzing U.S. monetary policy, labor markets, fiscal policy, international finance, economic indicators and the condition of the U.S. consumer.

A member of the Wall Street Journal’s forecasting panel and the UCLA Anderson School of Management's Board of Directors, Brusuelas regularly briefs members of Congress and other senior officials regarding the impacts of federal policy on the middle market and the factors by which middle market executives make business decisions. He also frequently offers his insights on the U.S., Canadian and global economies in the financial media. In 2020, he was named one of the 100 most influential economists by Richtopia. In December 2023, Brusuelas and the economics team were recognized on Bloomberg's list of Best Bond Forecasters after correctly predicting where the benchmark Treasury would end the year.

Before joining RSM in 2014, Brusuelas spent four years as a senior economist at Bloomberg L.P. and the Bloomberg Briefs newsletter group, where he co-founded the award-winning Bloomberg Economic Brief. Earlier in his career, he was a director at Moody's Analytics covering the U.S. and global economies for the Dismal Scientist website. He also served as chief economist at Merk Investments L.L.C. and chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal.

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