April’s strong jobs number overstated the underlying strength of the labor market because of what will prove to be a temporary increase in part-time employment. Overall, part-time employment rose by more than 28,000 workers, out of the total gain of 177,000.
The rise in transportation and warehousing employment in April, for example, can be attributed to businesses front-running the tariffs. But these jobs will soon start to decline as shipping volumes decrease.
The increase in short-term hiring might be also the reason why wage growth slowed to 0.2% on a three-month moving average in April, the lowest level since the pandemic.
Looking forward, as the impact of tariffs begins to show up inside key macro data, temporary workers are one of the areas most sensitive to a slowdown in overall demand and spending.
Expect temps as well as workers in logistics and transportation to be affected as the trade war shifts into high gear.