In holding the policy rate in a range between 4.25% and 4.5%, the Federal Open Market Committee also signaled the possibility of two rate cuts this year, … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
The U.S. is in better position to endure an oil and gas shock
Overall, the impact of the most recent Middle East conflict on the U.S. economy will be muted, but the risks of the conflict expanding remain. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Patience is a virtue for the Fed
Based on our own model and the central bank’s recent rhetoric, the Fed will be and should be in no hurry to cut rates given the risk around the economic outlook. … READ MORE >
Large declines in energy prices dampen a modest increase in inflation
Beneath the surface, one can see an emerging sketch of how inflation will increase across the economy as tariffs take effect. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Economy slowing into second half of the year
Slowly gathering headwinds are causing the economy to lose steam as it heads into the second half of the year. … READ MORE >
U.S. job creation continues to cool as tariffs begin to take hold
Job creation continued to cool in May as the economy created 139,000 jobs, just above the RSM forecast of 125,000, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. … READ MORE >
Job openings surpass expectations but labor market shows signs of stress
Job openings held up in April, rising above market expectations with a boost from the service sector. The total number of openings rose to 7.39 million from 7.2 million in March, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday. … READ MORE >
Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating and the rising term premium
Yields could very well rise in the near term with the 30-year Treasury note testing 5% and the 10-year approaching 4.5%. … READ MORE >
Inflation expectations surge as effective tariff rate hits 17.8%
The sharp increase, which comes as higher tariffs are about to take hold, heightens the risk that the Federal Reserve is losing control of what until recently were well-anchored expectations and, consequently, price stability. … READ MORE >
In April CPI report, scant evidence of tariff-induced inflation
We think it probable that the pervasive uncertainty around trade policy caused businesses to simply remain in place until they had more information about the tariffs. … READ MORE >