Beneath the surface, one can see an emerging sketch of how inflation will increase across the economy as tariffs take effect. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve
Market Minute: Economy slowing into second half of the year
Slowly gathering headwinds are causing the economy to lose steam as it heads into the second half of the year. … READ MORE >
U.S. job creation continues to cool as tariffs begin to take hold
Job creation continued to cool in May as the economy created 139,000 jobs, just above the RSM forecast of 125,000, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. … READ MORE >
Job openings surpass expectations but labor market shows signs of stress
Job openings held up in April, rising above market expectations with a boost from the service sector. The total number of openings rose to 7.39 million from 7.2 million in March, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday. … READ MORE >
Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating and the rising term premium
Yields could very well rise in the near term with the 30-year Treasury note testing 5% and the 10-year approaching 4.5%. … READ MORE >
Inflation expectations surge as effective tariff rate hits 17.8%
The sharp increase, which comes as higher tariffs are about to take hold, heightens the risk that the Federal Reserve is losing control of what until recently were well-anchored expectations and, consequently, price stability. … READ MORE >
In April CPI report, scant evidence of tariff-induced inflation
We think it probable that the pervasive uncertainty around trade policy caused businesses to simply remain in place until they had more information about the tariffs. … READ MORE >
With trade truce, U.S. and China avoid a decoupling, but devil is in the details
The bottom line is that American firms can now prepare for a significant increase in the cost of imports, which will then be passed along to consumers. … READ MORE >
Fed maintains rates but signals risk of stagflation
The Federal Open Market Committee held its policy rate steady in a range between 4.25% and 4.5% on Wednesday. But the Fed updated its policy statement in which it highlighted the risk of stagflation. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: April was the cruelest month. Now, all eyes are on the Fed.
We expect the Federal Reserve to keep its policy rate in a range between 4.25% and 4.5% with little to no change in the policy statement when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on May 6 and 7. … READ MORE >