The RSM US Financial Conditions Index has drifted lower in recent weeks, with its subcomponents showing greater volatility and lackluster results. … READ MORE >
Joe Brusuelas
RSM Canada’s outlook for 2026: A struggle for growth amid trade tensions
We expect Canada to have another modest year of growth in 2026 amid ongoing trade tensions with the United States and a continuing oil glut that will dampen export prices. … READ MORE >
RSM’s U.S. outlook for 2026: An acceleration in growth
We expect economic growth to rebound to 2.2% in 2026, with the PCE inflation rate reaching 2.7% and the unemployment rate rising to 4.5%. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Younger workers are doing just fine overall
The current unemployment rate of workers who are 20 to 24 years old stands at 8.6%, below the rate of recent economic expansions. … READ MORE >
Job gains in September bolster the case for a pause in rate cuts
The increase of 119,000 jobs in September will bolster the case of the hawks at the Federal Reserve to hold off on any rate cuts for now. … READ MORE >
Split in FOMC points to a pause in cuts, October minutes show
The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s October meeting provided unmistakable evidence of a split between hawks and doves, with a slight tilt toward the hawks. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The resilient U.S. prime-age workforce
The U.S. labor force participation rate among prime-age workers 25 to 54 stood at 83.7% in August—the most recent data available—just below the cyclical peak of 83.9% of August last year. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Rate expectations to weigh on the loonie vs. greenback
The Canadian dollar illustrates how growth differentials and diverging rate expectations have driven a wedge between the greenback and the loonie since July. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: No relief on horizon for mortgage rates
Increasing competition for scarce capital means higher long-term interest rates in general and elevated mortgage rates above 6% for 30-year fixed mortgage products. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: All I got from the crummy government shutdown is a 1.5% drag on GDP
Dislocation around government paychecks, SNAP payments and the permanent loss of income by government contractors over the past six weeks will take a number of weeks to unwind. … READ MORE >