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Initial jobless claims drop below 700,000 for first time in a year

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Initial jobless claims fell to 684,000 for the week ending March 20, the Labor Department reported on Thursday, which is good news and represents the first time they have dropped below 700,000 in roughly one year.

There were 241,000 new claims for federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, which is about in line with the week before. There are still 18.9 million people on some form of unemployment insurance. While first-time claims remain elevated, they are moving in a constructive direction.

Still, initial claims at 684,000 is roughly three times what one would have considered acceptable before the pandemic. Even with issues of fraud and other assorted challenges in state unemployment offices, it would be a mistake to dismiss claims at this level as something to ignore.

We anticipate that there will be volatility in the top-line number over the next several weeks before what will most likely be a pronounced decline around midyear as many people move back into the labor force and the economy reopens.

For more information on how the coronavirus pandemic is affecting midsize businesses, please visit the RSM Coronavirus Resource Center.

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About Joseph Brusuelas

@JoeBrusuelas

Joe Brusuelas, “chief economist to the middle market,” is the preeminent voice championing issues and policies facing midsize companies in the United States and around the world. An award-winning economist, Brusuelas has more than 20 years’ experience analyzing U.S. monetary policy, labor markets, fiscal policy, international finance, economic indicators and the condition of the U.S. consumer.

A member of the Wall Street Journal’s forecasting panel and the UCLA Anderson School of Management's Board of Directors, Brusuelas regularly briefs members of Congress and other senior officials regarding the impacts of federal policy on the middle market and the factors by which middle market executives make business decisions. He also frequently offers his insights on the U.S., Canadian and global economies in the financial media. In 2020, he was named one of the 100 most influential economists by Richtopia. In December 2023, Brusuelas and the economics team were recognized on Bloomberg's list of Best Bond Forecasters after correctly predicting where the benchmark Treasury would end the year.

Before joining RSM in 2014, Brusuelas spent four years as a senior economist at Bloomberg L.P. and the Bloomberg Briefs newsletter group, where he co-founded the award-winning Bloomberg Economic Brief. Earlier in his career, he was a director at Moody's Analytics covering the U.S. and global economies for the Dismal Scientist website. He also served as chief economist at Merk Investments L.L.C. and chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal.

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