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Initial jobless claims: Large decline as workers return

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First-time jobless claims declined to 576,000 for the week ending April 10, which is the lowest since March 2020 as individuals begin streaming back into the labor force and the economy begins to reopen on the back of vaccinations and fiscal aid.

In the past month, we pointed to coming volatility in top-line claims as more individuals who have exhausted their eligibility move back onto the employment rolls and as states continued to work through the backlogs in jobless claims, double-counting and fraud. For example, California alone had a decline of 75,645, so we are not yet convinced that this represents a decisive move down in overall jobless claims.

There are still 16.9 million people drawing some form of unemployment insurance, according to the government data released Thursday. For the week ending April 10, there were an additional 131,975 people applying for federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and 3.73 million applying for continuing claims.

For more information on how the coronavirus pandemic is affecting midsize businesses, please visit the RSM Coronavirus Resource Center.

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About Joseph Brusuelas

@JoeBrusuelas

Joe Brusuelas, “chief economist to the middle market,” is the preeminent voice championing issues and policies facing midsize companies in the United States and around the world. An award-winning economist, Brusuelas has more than 20 years’ experience analyzing U.S. monetary policy, labor markets, fiscal policy, international finance, economic indicators and the condition of the U.S. consumer.

A member of the Wall Street Journal’s forecasting panel and the UCLA Anderson School of Management's Board of Directors, Brusuelas regularly briefs members of Congress and other senior officials regarding the impacts of federal policy on the middle market and the factors by which middle market executives make business decisions. He also frequently offers his insights on the U.S., Canadian and global economies in the financial media. In 2020, he was named one of the 100 most influential economists by Richtopia. In December 2023, Brusuelas and the economics team were recognized on Bloomberg's list of Best Bond Forecasters after correctly predicting where the benchmark Treasury would end the year.

Before joining RSM in 2014, Brusuelas spent four years as a senior economist at Bloomberg L.P. and the Bloomberg Briefs newsletter group, where he co-founded the award-winning Bloomberg Economic Brief. Earlier in his career, he was a director at Moody's Analytics covering the U.S. and global economies for the Dismal Scientist website. He also served as chief economist at Merk Investments L.L.C. and chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal.

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