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Jobless claims: More noise than signal

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First-time jobless claims for the week ending Aug. 21 increased to 353,000 from 349,000 the previous week, which is below the 13-week moving average of 385,200.

Investors should anticipate more noise than signal from this data over the next three weeks because of holiday-induced distortions. Just as important, one would expect that a resurgent pandemic on the back of the delta variant will also cause some volatility.

About the only thing of interest in the data was the increase in claims under the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program, which provides benefits to self-employed workers, to 117,709 during the week.

For the week ending Aug. 7, 5 million people were receiving PUA, 3.7 million were on federal Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation—which provides supplemental aid on top of state benefits—and 12 million were receiving some form of unemployment insurance.

It is important to note that these numbers may decline sharply in September as people fall off the rolls as federal benefits expire and are not extended by the federal government.

For more information on how the coronavirus pandemic is affecting midsize businesses, please visit the RSM Coronavirus Resource Center.

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About Joseph Brusuelas

@JoeBrusuelas

Joe Brusuelas, “chief economist to the middle market,” is the preeminent voice championing issues and policies facing midsize companies in the United States and around the world. An award-winning economist, Brusuelas has more than 20 years’ experience analyzing U.S. monetary policy, labor markets, fiscal policy, international finance, economic indicators and the condition of the U.S. consumer.

A member of the Wall Street Journal’s forecasting panel and the UCLA Anderson School of Management's Board of Directors, Brusuelas regularly briefs members of Congress and other senior officials regarding the impacts of federal policy on the middle market and the factors by which middle market executives make business decisions. He also frequently offers his insights on the U.S., Canadian and global economies in the financial media. In 2020, he was named one of the 100 most influential economists by Richtopia. In December 2023, Brusuelas and the economics team were recognized on Bloomberg's list of Best Bond Forecasters after correctly predicting where the benchmark Treasury would end the year.

Before joining RSM in 2014, Brusuelas spent four years as a senior economist at Bloomberg L.P. and the Bloomberg Briefs newsletter group, where he co-founded the award-winning Bloomberg Economic Brief. Earlier in his career, he was a director at Moody's Analytics covering the U.S. and global economies for the Dismal Scientist website. He also served as chief economist at Merk Investments L.L.C. and chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal.

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